MIAMI — A tropical depression strengthened into Tropical Storm Debby north of Cuba on Saturday and was predicted to become a hurricane as it moves through the Gulf of Mexico on a collision course with the Florida coast.
The National Hurricane Center said in an update posted at 2 a.m. Sunday that Debby was located about 65 miles (105 kilometers) west-northwest of Dry Tortugas National Park in Florida and about 230 miles (370 kilometers) south-southwest of Tampa. The storm was moving northwest at 14 mph (22 kph) with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph (75 kph).
Wind and thunderstorms have spread over a broad area including southern Florida, the Florida Keys and the Bahamas. A hurricane warning was in effect for sections of the state's coast with tropical storm warnings for the Florida Keys.
Debby is likely to bring drenching rain and coastal flooding to much of Florida's Gulf Coast by Sunday night and predictions show the system could come ashore as a hurricane Monday and cross over northern Florida into the Atlantic Ocean.
Forecasters warn it also could drop heavy rains over north Florida and the Atlantic coasts of Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina early next week.
Debby is the fourth named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season after Tropical Storm Alberto, Hurricane Beryl and Tropical Storm Chris, all of which formed in June.
The National Hurricane Center in Miami predicted the system will strengthen as it curves off the southwest Florida coast, where the water has been extremely warm. Intensification was expected to proceed more quickly later on Sunday.
A hurricane warning was issued for parts of the Big Bend and the Florida Panhandle, while tropical storm warnings were posted for Florida's West Coast, the southern Florida Keys and Dry Tortugas. A tropical storm watch extended farther west into the Panhandle. A warning means storm conditions are expected within 36 hours, while a watch means they are possible within 48 hours.
Tropical storms and hurricanes can trigger river flooding and overwhelm drainage systems and canals. Forecasters warned of 6 to 12 inches (150mm to 300 mm) of rain and up to 18 inches (450 mm) in isolated areas, which could create "locally considerable" flash and urban flooding. Forecasters also warned of moderate flooding for some rivers along Florida's West Coast.
Heaviest rain could be in Georgia, South Carolina
Some of the heaviest rains could actually come next week along the Atlantic Coast from Jacksonville, Florida, through coastal regions of Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina. The storm is expected to slow down after making landfall.
"We could see a stall or a meandering motion around coastal portions of the southeastern United States," National Hurricane Center Director Michael Brennan said in a Saturday briefing. "So that's going to exacerbate not just the rainfall risk, but also the potential for storm surge and some strong winds."
Flat Florida is prone to flooding even on sunny days, and the storm was predicted to bring a surge of 2 to 4 feet (0.6 to 1.2 meters) along most of the Gulf Coast, including Tampa Bay, with a storm tide of up to 7 feet (2.1 meters) north of there in the sparsely populated Big Bend region.
Forecasters warned of "a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation" in a region that includes Hernando Beach, Crystal River, Steinhatchee and Cedar Key. Officials in Citrus and Levy counties ordered a mandatory evacuation of coastal areas, while those in Hernando, Manatee, Pasco and Taylor counties called for voluntary evacuations. Shelters opened in those and some other counties.
Citrus County Sheriff Mike Prendergast estimated 21,000 people live in his county's evacuation zone. Officials rescued 73 people from storm surge flooding during last year's Hurricane Idalia. Prendergast said by phone that he hopes not to have a repeat with Debbie.
"After the storm surge does come in, we simply don't have enough first responders in our agency and among the other first responders in the county to go in and rescue everybody that might need to be rescued," he said.
Flood preparations underway
Gov. Ron DeSantis declared a state of emergency for 61 of Florida's 67 counties, with the National Guard activating 3,000 guard members. Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp made his own emergency proclamation on Saturday.
The White House said federal and Florida officials were in touch and FEMA "pre-positioned" resources including water and food.
In Tampa alone, officials gave out more than 30,000 sandbags to barricade against flooding.
"We've got our stormwater drains cleared out. We've got our generators all checked and full. We're doing everything that we need to be prepared to face a tropical storm," Tampa Mayor Jane Castor said.
Christina Lothrop is the general manager at Blue Pelican Marina in Hernando Beach, a barrier island about 50 miles (80 kilometers) north of St. Petersburg. She said the public ramp was jammed Saturday with people launching boats.
"Today it's kind of normal, which is kind of weird," Lothrop told The Associated Press by telephone.
Workers at her marina have been preparing since Tuesday, however, securing boats stored on racks, stowing tool boxes and tying everything down.
"Right now what we're doing is mostly tying up boats," Lothrop said.
Before closing Saturday, Lothrop planned to raise computers off the floor and sandbag and tape doors. Idalia pushed about a foot of water (30 centimeters) into the store.
Betti Silverman, whose home in Crystal River was under an evacuation order, said on Saturday afternoon that she doubted her family would leave. Silverman's waterfront home flooded during Idalia just as her family was moving in, ruining boxes and furniture in the garage. But she said the forecast for Debby didn't seem as severe.
"We've been in Florida our whole lives, in South Florida, so hurricanes are not really a big, big thing," Silverman said.
On Friday, crews pulled floating cranes away from a bridge construction project across Tampa Bay, lashing together 74 barges and 24 floating cranes and anchoring them, project engineer Marianne Brinson told the Tampa Bay Times. Crews also laid down cranes on land on their sides.
Pinellas County paused a $5 million beach renourishment project necessitated in part by erosion from past storms.
For some, the name Debby summons bad memories of a 2012 tropical storm of the same name that caused $250 million in losses and eight deaths, including seven in the Sunshine State. That storm dumped torrential rains, including an astronomical 29 inches (730 mm) south of Tallahassee.
More storms in the Pacific, but no threat to land
More than 750 miles (1,200 kilometers) off Mexico in the Pacific Ocean, Hurricane Carlotta continued moving westward with top sustained winds of 85 mph (140 kph). Carlotta began losing strength Saturday and is likely to dissipate into a remnant of thunderstorms.
Farther west, Tropical Storm Daniel formed in the Pacific. It was more than 1,500 miles (2,400 kilometers) from the southern tip of Baja California and was also expected to dissipate without striking land.
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