Last week, we published an analysis of Pennsylvania voter registration by party by Katie Meyer of Spotlight PA and Carter Walker of Votebeat, showing that Democrats’ registration advantage over Republicans has declined over the past several decades. As the two note:
As of Sept. 16, Democrats made up 44% of registered voters in the commonwealth, down from a 2009 high of 51.2%, while Republicans were at 40.2%, up from 36.9% in 2009. Unaffiliated and third-party voters have boosted their numbers even more, from 11.9% in 2009 to 15.7%.
Here’s a chart with the raw numbers:
While Democrats held a sizable advantage in Pennsylvania in 2008 following the campaign and election of Barack Obama, the Republican party has grown since then. Independent and third-party voters have also seen continued steady growth.
(A quick note: Pennsylvania’s Department of State's party-level voter registration data goes back to 1998. Due to inconsistencies in how they’ve recorded independent/unaffiliated and various third-party registrations through the years, I’ve lumped them all together here.)
The analysis made me want to dive into county-level data, as the registration changes among Democrats and Republicans have not been uniform across the state.
Philadelphia County, for example, has grown only more Democratic during the past 26 years, with 785,000 registered party members as of mid-September. Republicans, meanwhile, have grown increasingly rare — there are now more independent and third-party members in the state's largest city than GOP members.
Allegheny County remains strongly Democratic, although the party has declined a bit in recent years, as Republicans and independents/third-party members have seen some small growth:
Republicans, meanwhile, have boomed in more rural counties, especially in Western Pennsylvania. White working-class voters have left the Democratic party in droves in recent years.
Beaver County used to be heavily Democratic — there were twice as many registered Democrats as Republicans there in 1998. This year, the GOP edged past:
Fayette County had an even larger Democratic advantage back in 1998, when it was home to more than three times as many Democrats as Republicans. Not anymore:
Similar changes have happened in Washington and Westmoreland; Republicans pulled ahead of Democrats in 2020 and 2018, respectively:
Democrats once held small leads in Armstrong and Indiana counties, but the GOP now holds a sizable advantage:
Areas that favored Republicans, meanwhile, have grown more conservative. The GOP held a small advantage in Butler County in 1998, but Democrats weren’t too far behind. During the past quarter-century, the right has opened up an enormous margin in voters:
Pennsylvania, like many states around the country, has ended up polarized: highly populated urban counties such as Philadelphia and Allegheny are overwhelmingly Democratic, while Republicans dominate in outlying and rural counties.
Looking for a different county? You can search them all here:
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