BANGKOK — The day Chonthicha Jangrew got up to give a public speech in 2021 about Thailand’s politically powerful monarchy, she was prepared to go to prison.
“It’s something I already knew would happen,” the 31-year-old elected parliamentarian said in an interview with NPR in May. It was days after she was sentenced to two years in prison for violating Thailand’s draconian lèse-majesté law, which criminalizes criticism of the royal institution.
In her speech at a protest, she questioned a decision by the then-junta to grant the king direct ownership of the multibillion-dollar royal assets, which had previously been controlled by an ostensibly independent body.
The charge carries a three to 15-year prison sentence; Chonthicha was given the minimum sentence of three years, with one commuted. But while she expected the verdict, hearing it still sent shivers down her spine.
“It’s still very hard to accept that. I feel like one foot is already in the jail,” said Chonthicha, who is out on bail while appealing the verdict. “I’m really disappointed with the court, with the judge. I thought at some point they might understand.”
In recent years, Thailand has taken tentative steps back toward democracy, after a period of political chaos that saw three elected governments deposed in eight years, followed by 10 years of military rule. But a flurry of court challenges has raised the specter of another crisis — with lèse-majesté at the front and center.
Chonthicha’s political party, the Move Forward Party, is facing dissolution for its pledge to reform the lèse-majesté law, which the Constitutional Court has already ruled is tantamount to trying to overthrow the monarchy.
The progressive pro-democracy party won the most seats in parliament in last year’s election, sweeping Chonthicha and other youth activists into office, but was blocked from forming a government by the military-appointed senate.
Meanwhile, former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, overthrown in a 2006 military coup, is facing his own lèse-majesté trial. His populist party, the Pheu Thai Party, formed a government last year in cooperation with conservative and military parties, turning former political enemies into uneasy coalition partners.
Thaksin returned to Thailand after 15 years in exile, leading many to assume a backroom deal had been struck, but his latest court case has cast doubt on the durability of the fragile coalition.
“It is clear that when Pheu Thai formed a coalition with the conservative parties, some sort of grand compromise had been reached,” said Ken Lohatepanont, a political analyst and PhD candidate at the Department of Political Science at the University of Michigan.
“But because we do not actually know all the specifics of this deal, it is difficult to speculate about what exactly Thaksin did that led to the compromise coming under strain. Perhaps it was Thaksin's heightened levels of political activity in recent months,” he said.
Pro-military figures have accused Thaksin of exerting undue influence over Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin, himself facing military-linked attempts to remove him from office.
Lohatepanont said “another theory” is that the mounting pressure on Pheu Thai is “the conservatives' attempt to retain some bargaining power over Thaksin now that many of their institutional privileges, particularly the Senate's ability to select a prime minister, has evaporated.”
Certain undemocratic reforms introduced by the military-drafted 2017 constitution have now expired, including the senate’s role in voting for the prime minister. Thavisin has said he will consider constitutional reform and the military-backed establishment may be hoping to maintain leverage over that process.
But the real threat to the conservative establishment is the Move Forward Party. With the military senate no longer involved in selecting the prime minister, Move Forward is expected to cruise to victory in the next election in 2027 — if it’s allowed to run at all.
Former party leader Pita Limjaroenrat pointed out that Move Forward’s predecessor, the Future Forward Party, was dissolved in 2020 after finishing third in the 2019 election, but that proved to be just a “short hiccup.” The movement reorganized under the Move Forward banner and did even better in the next election.
“It’s worth noting that our movement is more than just a political party or a few leaders — it’s a set of ideas that has brought together millions of people,” he said, adding the movement can continue to grow without him at the head.
Pita said the party’s widespread popularity “is based on hard work, policies, and most importantly, political integrity.” But he acknowledged that political pressure has only made the party stronger.
“Various judicial harassments against us might boomerang, generating rage, anger or sympathy and rallying support for us,” he said. “History shows that lawfare against our party has often increased public support by highlighting perceived injustices.”
A similar pattern has played out with lèse-majesté. A youth activist charged under the law, who goes by the name Sainam, said he was first inspired to join protests because he wanted to see the law reformed. He said he thinks the more the law is used against activists the more people dislike it.
“I think Thai people now want more free speech. They know more and they learn more, so they want more rights that they didn’t know they can have,” the 20-year-old said.
Both Sainam and Chonthicha said they are against the use of the law in all cases, but worry that Thaksin could receive preferential treatment due to backroom political negotiations.
“Many of my friends who can’t afford to flee from this country don’t get the right to bail out but Thaksin gets the right to bail,” Sainam said.
In May, 28-year-old activist Netiporn “Bung” Sanesangkhom died during a hunger strike protesting her pretrial detention for lèse-majesté.
Chonthicha had known Bung since the mass demonstrations of 2021, when she taught her how to legally notify the police in order to hold a public protest.
Chonthicha said Bung had a reputation for being “aggressive” but was really just “very sensitive” and “impatient” when it came to issues of inequality, injustice or discrimination.
“I told her about my stories when I was in jail in 2015 in the women’s prison in Bangkok,” where she suffered sexual harassment and was treated “like a slave,” she said. Upon hearing these stories, Bung “cried like a baby,” Chonthicha said.
“She [Bung] said that she doesn’t want anyone to face the same thing that I did and she just wants to change the country so that we can live with dignity.”
Chonthicha had been in Germany with Pita when Bung died, but made it back for her funeral.
“During the last day of her funeral, her sister came to me and she told me that Bung always mentioned and talked about me, that I tried to support her. Her sister told me, please stand for Bung to find the justice for her and her family,” she recalled.
Chonthicha said despite the groundswell of public opinion, change is never guaranteed.
“Change will only come if we do something,” she said, pointing to the long fight for same-sex marriage, which this year passed both legislative chambers.
“It happened not just because the elite or the establishment are very kind to us and give us the rights that we have, it’s because we fight for it,” she said.
The day before her verdict, Chonthicha had dinner with her family, and assured them everything would be fine. These days, they try not to talk about politics. The daughter of a soldier, Chonthicha jokes that she was a “bad kid” for getting involved in activism against her parents’ wishes.
She said in the beginning, her parents tried to stop her from going out to the protests and they argued a lot.
“I told them that no one really wants to go out on the street. It's not fun at all. It’s hot and dangerous, we might end up in jail or get hit by the police,” she recounted.
“But we have to do that because the older generation gave this kind of country to us. You passed on this kind of society, so that’s why we have to stand up to fight. I don’t want to pass this kind of country and society to my children.”
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